Three scenarios are being considered in the diplomatic background with the aim of resuming a new process on the Cyprus issue.
A British foreign office team, which is working thoroughly on this issue, an attempt is being made to use the presence of key players in New York in September ahead of the United Nations General Assembly to begin work.
[penci_ads id=”penci_ads_1″]
Reportedly, these scenarios are as follows:
First, before going to New York, Anastasiades and Tatar should exchange letters of intent.
It will be a form of informal commitment to start the process, where positions that satisfy the other side can also be presented.
This would allow the United Nations to embark on a new effort, with the basic axes of each other’s intentions before it.
This scenario seems to be shelved as it is considered difficult as an undertaking to carry out.
Secondly, to hold the meeting of Anastasiades and Tatar with the Secretary-General with the aim of adopting a joint communiqué, such as the one of February 2014.
It should be recalled in this regard that at that time, with the intervention of the American Deputy Minister, Victoria Nuland, a base text for further talks was agreed between Anastasiades and Eroglu.
Thirdly, a statement should be issued by the Secretary-General of the United Nations which, without going into detail, possibly avoiding references that disturb bother both sides, calls for a new effort on the Cyprus issue.
It will be, as informed sources say, a statement characterized by constructive ambiguity.
[penci_ads id=”penci_ads_1″]
Relevant reports indicate that the British factor, which is leading the way behind the scenes as always, is focusing at this stage in the second scenario, that of issuing a joint statement.
The team of Ajay Sharma, responsible for the Cyprus issue in the foreign office, is said to have also edited a text, which will be presented to those involved at a later stage, certainly before their transfer to the United Nations headquarters.
It is not excluded that the role of sounding will be taken over by the international organization’s envoy, jane holl lute, who has indicated her intention to visit the region at the end of August-beginning of September.
The question, of course, is what the joint statement will write and why, for example, to change the one of Anastasiades and Eroglu on 11 February 2014.
At that time, the seven-point communiqué described (point 3) the form of the solution, reiterating that “the solution will be based on a Bicommunal Bi-zonal Federation with political equality, as defined in the relevant resolutions of the SLO and the high-level agreements.
The united Cyprus as a member of the UN will have a single international integrity and a single sovereignty which is defined as the sovereignty enjoyed by all UN member-states under the UN Charter and which emanates from Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots…”
The fact that they will not rely on that communiqué is part of the effort not to have a wording that will not be accepted by the Turks, who are putting the two-state solution first.
The British note that it is all about starting talks and everything will come about along the way and that the outcome is important.
They note that in the Bizonal Bicommunal Federation they can “fit a lot”, giving the message that in the negotiation everything can be agreed.
As Elizabeth Spehar said before the Security Council, resolutions are not restrictive.
But Mrs. Lute, on her last trip to Cyprus, sounded out the intentions of the Greek Cypriot side for the possibility that a reference to “self-governing areas” had been included in the Good Offices report on the Cyprus issue, submitted to the Security Council in July.
Mrs Lute’s argument was that this reference in the report would satisfy the “concerns” of the Turkish Cypriots, referring to a surrender of sovereignty to the TRNC. This was eventually abandoned as it was rejected by both the Greek Cypriot and the Turkish Cypriot side.
The UN Secretary-General appears to be wary of a new attempt in the face of fear of another failure.
He obviously wants to secure some reassurances.
It is clear, however, that in view of the fact that the British insist, he will take the next step, having as his last option the issuance of his own statement, which will largely betray a move of low expectations and an effort to keep the Cyprus issue alive.
It will call for the resumption of talks, knowing that conditions are not conducive to such a development at the moment.
Mainly with what is happening on the ground from the Turkish side and its insistence on a two-state solution.
[penci_ads id=”penci_ads_1″]
Will this be done with constructive ambiguity, or do those who mediate believe that the start of talks will strike the right balance? And what will that mean? A formula between the IPU and the two states.
A confederation of two states, which is the scenario favored by the Turkish side. As a foreign diplomat said, with experience on the Cyprus issue, they can call the solution as they want, the content is important. But also whether it will work.
WAITING AND THE GUARANTOR POWERS
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will have separate meetings with Anastasiades and Ersin Tatar, in September in New York, with the aim of all three of them.
At the same time, it is open to the possibility that the United Nations will also involve the guarantor powers.
This will depend on two factors. What will Jane Hall Lutt convey to him from her contacts on the island, and possibly in the region, and, secondly, from the outcome of the meeting between Guterres, Anastasiades and Tatar.
Greece, Turkey and Britain will be waiting for the green light from the UN to attend – if necessary – a new five-party conference, this time in New York.
South Nicosia is invited to facilitate with gifts
The Cyprus issue, after the gradual opening of the enclosed area of Famagusta and the Turkish insistence on a two-state solution, has been put on the back burner, according to estimates by foreign diplomats. The latter believe that there will be other moves on the part of Ankara that will worsen the climate.
London, however, is suggesting to Nicosia that as long as talks are not started, Turkey will proceed with new actions. It is clear that the absence of a procedure lends itself to the Turks for new moves to impose more openings.
[penci_ads id=”penci_ads_1″]
It is not a question of this finding, which is not new, but of how to resume talks. And at this point it seems that the various “well-wishers” are turning to the Greek side to be “generous”, to facilitate efforts to start a new process on the Cyprus issue.
Many times this suggestion also works extortionately. Either “gifts” will be given or Turkey will proceed with Actions on the ground, removing the achievement of an agreement.
This tactic, however, encourages Turkey and certainly does not facilitate the prospects for a process that will work.
