It will be written into the history books as such: the olive branch held out since the beginning of this century by Turkish Cypriots has finally been pulled back. After having voted time and time again for reunification of the island, for the Annan Plan, for President Mehmet Ali Talat, for President Mustafa Akıncı, and for MEP Niyazi Kızılyürek, and receiving next to nothing in return from their neighbours to the south, Turkish Cypriots have finally run out of patience for a united Cyprus.
Ersin Tatar’s victory in last night’s presidential election is proof that the balance has finally tipped, and that the majority of Turkish Cypriots no longer believe reunification to be a possibility. It is, in effect, the ending of a chapter in Turkish Cypriot history. The period between the Annan Plan referendum and now was one of consistent indications by Turkish Cypriots of their readiness to reunify the island, but ultimately not finding equal enthusiasm among Greek Cypriots. The four occasions I mentioned above were statements of intent – a population itching for reunification, ready to share once more this island with Greek Cypriots. They were never reciprocated in any meaningful way, and so here we are.
You may be keen at this point to point out that Tatar’s party, UBP, has already had two of its members elected President. The party itself was founded by Rauf Denktaş in 1975, and he won six elections between 1976 and 2000. Derviş Eroğlu, too, President between 2010 and 2015 is an UBP man. However, politics and political positions are not set in stone – they move and change with time and circumstance. Denktaş and Eroğlu, though by no means akin to Akıncı in their beliefs, were open to reunification and negotiated for such an outcome in good faith. Ersin Tatar, however, is not. He is of the opinion that the time for talking of reunification has passed, and that alternatives (namely a two-state solution of a kind) should be sought. Be under no illusions, this is a sea change.
Turkish Cypriots have run out of patience, and run out of trust
How did it come to this? As I’ve already alluded to, Turkish Cypriots have simply grown tired of constantly trying for reunification and being rejected by the Greek Cypriot majority. The Annan Plan of 2004 saw thousands on the streets of northern Nicosia in support of reunification, 65% of Turkish Cypriots voted in favour, only to see the plan rejected by 75% of Greek Cypriots. UBP was thrown out of the presidency for the first time in its history a year later, but CTP’s Mehmet Ali Talat was unable to find enough common ground, even with his “sister party” AKEL holding the Greek Cypriot presidency. Five and a half years ago Turkish Cypriots risked the ire of their only ally Turkey, electing a dedicated supporter of reunification in Mustafa Akıncı who is loathed in the corridors of power in Ankara. The result of that? Negotiations torpedoed by the Greek Cypriot leader for his own political gain.
The result of all of that is that enough Turkish Cypriots have run out of patience, and run out of trust, that Ersin Tatar could win the presidency on a promise to give up on reunification. This is for me and for many like me a sad day – I wanted to and still want to believe that reunification of this island is possible, that the communities of this island can live side by side in harmony, and I don’t feel any less attachment to one “side” of the island than another. I don’t want to agree with Tatar’s notion, and the consensus that reunification is an idea of a bygone era – but I do definitely understand it.
What do the next five years have in store for us, therefore? Further political divergence between Cyprus’ two sides is almost a given. I can’t see any Greek Cypriot politician sitting down with Ersin Tatar to negotiate a two-state solution, so I’m not sure much formal progress will be made in that sense. Furthermore, I am not convinced that a fully independent and internationally recognised Northern Cyprus is a realistic proposition in any case at this time, so I can’t say for certain the exact outcome that Tatar would be looking for.
One thing that is for certain, however, is that reunification is dead. Federation has well and truly kicked the can at this point, and in my lifetime Cyprus has never felt so divided. As Ersin Tatar’s campaign slogan said, we are headed for a new future – a different one, and a divided one. In any case, I wish him all the best – his success as leader is all of our success.
